News, Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations (No News Is Good News)
نویسندگان
چکیده
We formalize the idea that uncertainty is generated by news about future developments in economic conditions which are not perfectly predictable by the agents. With a simple model of limited information we show that uncertainty shocks can be obtained as the square of news shocks. We develop a two-step econometric procedure to estimate the effects of news and we find highly nonlinear effects. Large news shocks increase uncertainty that mitigates the effects of good news and amplify the effects of bad news in the short run. By contrast, small news shocks reduce uncertainty and increase output in the short run. The Volcker recession and the great recession were exacerbated by the uncertainty effects of news. JEL classification: C32, E32.
منابع مشابه
The Asymmetric Impact of Weighting Economic and Political Events on the Fluctuations of Banking Group Index (Case of Tehran Stock Exchange)
Stock Exchange Investors have paid more attention to the banking group in recent years so that in many cases, the direction of the banking index has changed the general direction of the market. Therefore, exploring the banking index fluctuation is important from the point of view of investors as well as the direction of the market. The purpose is to examine the effectiveness and direction of ne...
متن کاملThematic analysis of the news of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics with emphasis on gender(case study: Shargh news paper)
abstract: The purpose of writing this article is to thematically analyze the news of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics by emphasizing gender and presenting an indigenous model of its related components using the theories of experts. The text of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic event is in Shargh 1400 newspaper (August 1 - August 17) which is a purposeful sampling, first based on commonalities, related them...
متن کاملConsequences of Economic Consequences Strategic Scheduling Announcing Management Profits
Corporates provide different dates for presenting information about financial status and future prospects of corporate to stockholders. Stockholders and stock market participants consider the information obtained from the corporate as good news or bad news and they react on this basis. In recent years, corporate programs have been considered by analysts and accounting researchers in order to ma...
متن کاملA Comparative Review of Hijab Discovery News Coverage in News Media
Purpose: News media play an important role in attitude towards various issues including hijab and hijab discovery. As a result, the purpose of this research was comparative review of hijab discovery news coverage in news media. Methodology: This study in terms of purpose was applied and in terms of implementation method was quantitative. The research population was the hijab discovery news in ...
متن کاملAn Investigation of the Effect of Ideological, Economic, and Status Components on Political News Translation
Translation is a challenging task, especially when it deals with ideological turns. Translations may be ma- nipulated and rewritten by rival parties to serve their own interests and convey their own ideologies and also translators play a significant role in negotiating meaning within social and political processes. In the field of ideological turns, different matters are being discussed f...
متن کامل